3.11.11

VERY relevant paper from 2001

I just found an extremely relevant paper form 2001 where someone has actually implemented an agent-based model of panther movements to explore the feasibility of re-introducing panthers to a location in Northern Florida.

The paper doesn't explicitly acknowledge its agent-based modelling methodology, but it definitely uses ABMs to model panthers moving around a real landscape. There are many similarities to my work here. The exact methodology does differ but is essence they have panthers looking at neighbouring cells, choosing a location and moving to that location, based on habitat, prey resource, roads and human density, whilst simultaneously interacting with other panthers in the area.

This is THE paper to reference.

And I am one very happy camper! :)

Reference:
Cramer, P.C. & Portier, K.M. (2001) Modelling Florida panther movements in response to human attributes of the landscape and ecological settings. Ecological Modelling 140: 51-80
(available from ScienceDirect, or Mendeley).

1.11.11

Habitat preference and territory development

Getting jaguar agents to mimic real-life individuals and create territories is one of the most important features to try and get right in this type of agent-based model.

Exploring the way jaguars move through landscapes involves understanding how they interact with each other and with the environment. Territory formation and avoidance (or not) of conspecifics are integral to getting these interactions to be as close to mimicking those found in real populations as possible.

So.... some kind of pheromone seems that it should elicit an easy territory response in the agents. 'Marking' each cell with some level of pheromone as the agents move into and out of the cell and then allowing this 'pheromone' to degrade over time should allow territories to organically emerge during the simulation and with a bit of tweaking as to how quickly the pheromones should degrade and how 'strong' they should be to other individuals and to themselves.

The main idea is that individuals should not want to re-trace their steps too often, and that generally individuals should try and avoid each other - either due to possible conflicts between adults and due to resource depletion.

We know a bit about how large and flexible territories are in wild jaguar populations and so we settled on a maximum pheromone level of 100, with a degradation rate of 0.98, so that the pheromone reduced by 0.02% each timestep. This gave realistic territory sizes.

The strength of the pheromone is equal to its level, except for an agents own pheromone which is reduced to 0.15% of its current level; a deterrent to re-entering the cell but not enough to mean that the individual would not want to re-treat to its territory if meeting another individual or unsuitable habitat was the only other option.

The addition of pheromones, and the basic least-cost model idea of the simulation led to the following output, where clearly define territories (individuals in different colours) and habitat preferences can be seen:



Some individuals have been 'pushed' out of the forest area due to the population size. This is intentional. A higher number of individuals creates stress for any single individual. Without some level of stress, individuals will be content on remaining in fairly isolated areas. Some stress is needed in order for individuals to move and seek new areas in which lead a lifestyle of least-cost, so prompting the migration of individuals from one side of the landscape to the other.